German PV Market Briefing 2013: EuPD Research forecasts new installations totaling 3.9 gigawatt this year
However, Chief Analyst Markus Lohr fears that many installers in the branch will "die out" in the second half of the year
(PresseBox) (Bonn/Frankfurt a.M., )For the sixth time running, decision makers within the branch came together for EuPD Research's "German PV Market Briefing" to discuss the state of the market, potentials and current developments in the photovoltaic sector. On the 21st February 2013, experts from EuPD Research talked with representatives from the branch about market developments in Germany, but also about the role of the renewable energies act (Erneuerbaren-Energien-Gesetz) and the possibility of storage sub sidies.
Chief analyst at EuPD Research Markus Lohr predicts new installations totaling at 3.9 gigawatt in Germany in 2013. Within the past few months, Lohr explains on the basis of primary data, the large scale systems sector has gained importance on the German PV market. The shares of this type of system have risen especially in the East of the Republic. Despite an overall decrease in new systems, the market research organization EuPD Research is expecting significant peaks to occur mid-year, in the months of June and July. Lastly, Markus Lohr fears that the situation for installers will become much more difficult.
Overall, module prices - and as a result of this also system costs - are set to decrease further. For manufacturers and module manufacturers especially, this will create more acute competition. Analyst Markus Lohr even predicts that many installation companies will leave business in the second half of the year, especially those specialized in solar energy systems. The figures from current studies show that 40% of German installers are already searching for alternatives in order to deal with such a change in the market situation. Storage technology for example could provide a viable alternative business sector for some of these companies.
Although there are as yet no concrete details or starting dates with regard to the subsidization of storage technologies, Cornelia Viertl, representative for solar and geothermal energy from the Federal Ministry for the Environment, was still able to outline current political endeavors. Viertl explained that a market incentive program is currently being planned in Berlin, but didn't elaborate on the extent of the subsidies or give any binding date for the start of this support. So far there has been only speculation on such a program coming into effect on the 1st May.
Each session was accompanied by an individual opinion benchmark and a voting session. The participants were able to give their opinion in real time at the touch of a button and thus provided a direct and accurate picture of the mood throughout the entire event. These results could then be picked up on during the discussion, commented on and analyzed by the expert panel. Alongside questions on market volume and the signs of saturation within the German market, participants were also invited to evaluate the continuation of the renewable energies act. Around half of those present (47.4%) were convinced that the act would be retained in its current form after summer 2013. This was a significantly higher value in comparison to last year, when just a fifth (21%) of the participants trusted in political continuity.
With regard to the development of system prices, the majority of participants were convinced that they would sink further over the course of the year. Around half presumed once again that prices would sink less than the feed in tariff, whereas 16% thought that prices could sink more rapidly than the subsidy. A similar share of participants even presumed that prices would recover and increase slightly.
The question as to who would be most affected by this decrease in prices received various differing answers. Most of the participants (39%) assumed that all market representatives would be equally affected, and 13% presumed that the price reduction would hit module manufacturers the hardest. However, 10% were convinced that installers would bear most of the costs.
Background on the "German PV Market Briefing 2013"
All the information on the German PV Market Briefing 2013,can be found here. The event is supported by the Berlin Solar Network, the Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft, the Bundesverband Energiespeicher, the German CleanTech Institute, Intersolar Europe, the IPVEA, Joint Forces for Solar Global, PV Group Semi, SolarInput e.V., Solarpraxis AG, Solarvalley, and the VDMA.
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